(General content note: A lot of my thinking has really changed since the old days of this blog. There’s some weird, mean, and polemic stuff in there.)
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Using natural frequencies in lots of different ways may become as big a thing for me as Coherence Therapy. I’m always looking for stuff that nails what my brain is already doing, so that I can learn to deliberately, consciously work with actual, immediate levers within consciousness, to be able to do things I couldn’t possibly have done before. This hints at ways to get fast, two-way communication between System 1 and System 2.
Cosmides, Leda, and John Tooby. “Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty.” cognition 58, no. 1 (1996): 1-73.
Brase, Gary L., Leda Cosmides, and John Tooby. “Individuation, counting, and statistical inference: The role of frequency and whole-object representations in judgment under uncertainty.” Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 127, no. 1 (1998): 3.
Hoffrage, Ulrich, Gerd Gigerenzer, Stefan Krauss, and Laura Martignon. “Representation facilitates reasoning: What natural frequencies are and what they are not.” Cognition 84, no. 3 (2002): 343-352.
Obrecht, Natalie A., Britta Anderson, Jay Schulkin, and Gretchen B. Chapman. “Retrospective Frequency Formats Promote Consistent Experience‐Based Bayesian Judgments.” Applied Cognitive Psychology 26, no. 3 (2012): 436-440.
(This last one gives me pause, regarding predictions under this regime. Comments and citations appreciated.)
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